Possible scenario
Chinese Regional Response
20% Chance
China is likely to object diplomatically to a long-range air-to-air missile test by an Australian ally of the United States. The base case is rhetorical pushback, but a small chance exists that the PLA uses exercises to signal displeasure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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