Possible scenario
Tariff Relief Debate
25% Chance
The inflation estimate gives tariff critics inside business groups, Congress and parts of the administration stronger evidence to seek exemptions. Markets would view any credible relief as disinflationary and modestly positive for import-heavy sectors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.2%
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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