Possible scenario
Status Quo Holds
20% Chance
The administration argues the inflation effect is manageable or already absorbed, leaving the tariff structure intact. Markets mostly treat the finding as confirmation of known pressure rather than a new catalyst.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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