Possible scenario
Fed Caution Repriced
45% Chance
Investors treat the NY Fed finding as evidence that tariff pass-through was larger than previously assumed. The most likely consequence is a modest hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve path rather than an immediate policy change.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Technology -0.5%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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