Possible scenario
Limited Truce Revived
25% Chance
Ankara and the UN narrow the talks to a practical arrangement covering ports, civilian vessels, and notification channels rather than a broad Black Sea ceasefire. Putin accepts limited language after receiving assurances on Russian food and fertilizer logistics, while Kyiv preserves freedom to strike Russian military assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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