Possible scenario
Government Gains Ground
30% Chance
Saudi-backed Yemeni forces make measurable gains around Sanaa but do not immediately retake the capital. This outcome would strengthen the Presidential Leadership Council's negotiating position while keeping the risk of Houthi retaliation elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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