Possible scenario
Government Narrows Dispute
20% Chance
Interior and NPS could reduce judicial pressure by conceding process defects, proposing mitigation, and narrowing future work until environmental and historic-preservation filings are updated. This would let the administration protect the Trump Arch project without inviting a broader adverse ruling.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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