Possible scenario
US Warnings Resume
35% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington and Kyiv repair the early-warning channel after public scrutiny of the latest metro and power-grid strikes. The US may narrow intelligence-sharing rules while still providing alerts needed to protect civilians and critical infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.