Possible scenario
Hochul Consolidates Lead
30% Chance
The appearance of Trump and Tyson helps Hochul turn the race into a referendum on Trump rather than her Albany record. Democratic turnout operations intensify in New York City, Westchester, and Erie County, limiting Blakeman's path.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.