Possible scenario
Crackdown Extends Protests
30% Chance
Police dispersals harden student opposition and broaden the protest agenda from education funding to policing tactics. Further arrests or injuries would likely bring larger weekend marches in Paris, Lyon, Marseille, and Toulouse.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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