Possible scenario
Unrest Gradually Contained
42% Chance
The government absorbs the immediate security shock through heavy policing, selective dialogue with unions, and limited local curfews. Demonstrations continue but lose intensity as schools reopen and transport disruption eases.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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