Possible scenario
Prolonged Security Crisis
20% Chance
The scale of injuries among security forces hardens the government’s response while protest networks broaden from pensions into policing and cost-of-living grievances. The result is a larger domestic risk premium, though still short of a systemic European crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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