Possible scenario
Policy Backstop Stabilizes
35% Chance
South Korea's finance ministry, Bank of Korea, and large domestic institutions move quickly to calm markets after the record foreign selloff. The won stabilizes and bargain buying limits further losses, though investors remain cautious on AI-linked chip names.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Technology +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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