Possible scenario
AI Chip Rebound
20% Chance
Investors conclude the selloff went too far relative to the earnings outlook for high-bandwidth memory and AI servers. SK hynix and Samsung rebound as dip buyers separate Korean memory leaders from weaker parts of the semiconductor supply chain.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +2.3%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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