Possible scenario
Slow-Burn Stress
30% Chance
France's debt problem remains serious but does not immediately become a eurozone crisis. Investors demand a higher risk premium while waiting for a credible 2027 fiscal framework and the next rating-agency reviews.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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