Possible scenario
Prolonged Export Freeze
30% Chance
The Kremlin keeps the non-producer ban in place and maintains strict domestic allocation as refinery outages constrain output. Black Sea diesel flows remain zero or near zero for several weeks, tightening Mediterranean and European distillate balances.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Tickers
- TRMD+4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.