Possible scenario
Black Sea Escalation
15% Chance
Ukraine extends the refinery campaign to fuel terminals, storage tanks, or pipeline nodes serving Black Sea export routes. Russia retaliates against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, adding geopolitical risk premia to refined products and crude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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