Possible scenario
Sanctions Pressure Builds
20% Chance
US officials scrutinize whether India's replacement crude flows fully comply with the new tariff and sanctions regime. The risk is not a full diplomatic crisis, but compliance costs and uncertainty rise for refiners and traders handling Russian-linked logistics.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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