Possible scenario
Iraq Replaces Russia
40% Chance
Indian refiners use the Iraqi discount to replace sanctioned Russian barrels while preserving refining margins. Baghdad benefits from higher sales into Asia, and the immediate market impact stays concentrated in crude differentials and Indian refining equities.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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