Possible scenario
Discount Quickly Narrows
25% Chance
Iraq's state marketer SOMO reduces the steep discount once Indian buying proves strong. Indian refiners still diversify away from Russia, but the margin windfall from the $28 discount fades quickly.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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