Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
20% Chance
The short two-month extension proves to be a sign of shallow progress rather than momentum. Domestic politics, AI controls or rare-earth licensing disputes could push either side back toward retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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