Possible scenario
Rolling Truce Persists
30% Chance
The symbolic summit reduces near-term rupture risk but does not solve the underlying tariff, AI and rare-earth disputes. The most realistic middle path is repeated short extensions while both governments avoid taking blame for escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.