Possible scenario
Limited Deal Emerges
40% Chance
The two-month extension creates enough time for negotiators to convert the summit optics into a narrow, enforceable agreement. The most likely substance is partial tariff relief, predictable rare-earth licensing, and limited AI export-control carveouts rather than a full reset of the relationship.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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