Possible scenario
Labor Conflict Escalates
25% Chance
Unions reject a multi-year pay freeze as excessive after earlier job-cut plans, leading to work stoppages or rolling strikes. The risk is material because Volkswagen is asking for unusually broad concessions from a workforce of roughly 660,000 people.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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