Possible scenario
Localized West Bank Violence
30% Chance
A limited security incident occurs in the West Bank or East Jerusalem, but Israeli agencies do not confirm a centrally directed PA plot. The most likely outcome is localized unrest, arrests, and temporary closures rather than a wider conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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