Possible scenario
Payment Workaround Fails
18% Chance
The disclosure that Moscow says Washington sought help from a sanctioned Russian fund becomes legally and politically toxic. US officials back away from the mechanism, leaving the diesel deal announced by Trump without a workable settlement channel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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