Possible scenario
Deal Muddles Through
45% Chance
The Trump administration keeps the diesel-supply arrangement alive by narrowing the payment channel and framing it as a temporary fuel-security measure. Macron's criticism raises diplomatic costs, but Washington prioritizes containing diesel prices and avoids a public rupture with Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- VLO-0.1%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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