Possible scenario
Kyiv Limits Strikes
38% Chance
Ukraine accepts part of Washington's demand because record US diesel prices weaken its political support in the United States. Kyiv preserves its broader drone campaign but avoids the most inflation-sensitive Russian refinery targets while seeking alternative pressure points.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
- Industrials +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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