Possible scenario
Narrow Accident Finding
20% Chance
Investigators may conclude that the fatal outcome was driven mainly by a sudden wind shift and fast-moving grassfire rather than deliberate disregard of warnings. This outcome reduces the likelihood of sweeping disciplinary action or national training disruption.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.