Possible scenario
Republicans Stabilize
20% Chance
Republicans succeed in limiting damage from Trump’s weak approval by localizing House and Senate races. The party remains at risk in suburban districts, but the probability of a sweeping Democratic midterm falls materially.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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