Possible scenario
Race Tightens Again
30% Chance
Republicans recover part of the lost ground as campaign spending intensifies and undecided voters return to their partisan preferences. Democrats remain slightly ahead, but the outcome shifts back toward a conventional midterm fight decided by turnout in competitive districts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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