Possible scenario
Democratic Lead Holds
38% Chance
The current 12-point Democratic advantage proves durable as the GOP convention bounce fully dissipates and Trump’s low approval weighs on Republican candidates. Democrats become clear favorites to win the House, while the Senate remains more competitive because of state-level maps.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Healthcare -0.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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