Possible scenario
Energy Shock Escalates
20% Chance
The Middle East conflict or QatarEnergy outage worsens before the EU mechanism can offset lost supply. Markets treat the energy task force as a crisis-management tool, not a solution, creating a short-lived global risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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