Possible scenario
Paxton Comeback Victory
32% Chance
Paxton uses Trump’s endorsement and repeated rallies to reassemble the Republican coalition and improve turnout in rural Texas, exurban counties, and the Rio Grande Valley. Talarico remains competitive, but Democratic gains fall short in the highest-growth suburban counties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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