Possible scenario
UAE Mediates Restraint
17% Chance
Abu Dhabi uses its access to Washington and Jerusalem to argue against a direct confrontation with Iran. A quiet diplomatic channel through Oman or another Gulf intermediary limits retaliation risk and preserves Abraham Accords cooperation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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