Possible scenario
Harder Iran Deterrence
28% Chance
The meeting produces a firmer deterrence posture toward Tehran while stopping short of direct conflict. The US may extend deployments, accelerate missile-defense transfers, and coordinate sanctions or interdictions targeting Iranian missile networks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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