Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Scenario
Assume some commercial energy cargoes cross the Strait of Hormuz during the final week, but throughput remains intermittent, highly restricted, or dependent on exceptional protection. Model how uncertain deliveries, higher freight and insurance costs, and rerouting affect energy supply and macro risk without equating limited crossings with normalization.
Most impacted companies
Benchmark funds
Market view
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.
| Holding | Change | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | -6.4% | 100% | -6.40% |
| Total | 100% | -6.4% |