Possible scenario
Gradual Spanish Rebound
42% Chance
Spain’s manufacturing upturn proves modest but durable, helped by domestic demand, easing financing conditions and some restocking. The recovery remains uneven because high energy costs and weak German industry continue to cap export momentum.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.