Possible scenario
Eurozone Divergence Persists
20% Chance
Spain’s PMI improvement is real but does not signal a synchronized euro-area manufacturing recovery. Germany’s auto-led weakness continues to weigh on regional supply chains and export expectations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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