Possible scenario
Legal Battle Escalates
18% Chance
Heathrow, airlines or local stakeholders challenge the rejection, arguing that the prior Starmer approval and the regulator’s cost-recovery decision created legitimate expectations. The courts and the Civil Aviation Authority become the main battleground, extending uncertainty.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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