Possible scenario
Managed Cooperation Expands
45% Chance
Washington and Beijing build on the September 2026 AI dialogue and crisis mechanisms, using industry input from Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Chinese labs to formalize technical safety channels. The outcome is most likely because both governments have already created notification systems and have incentives to avoid an AI crisis while preserving selective commercial access.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
Tickers
- NVDA+1.6%
- AMD+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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