Possible scenario
Guardrails Stay Narrow
25% Chance
The two governments preserve the new crisis-management architecture but avoid linking it to major commercial concessions. This reflects a realistic compromise: safety cooperation continues, while export controls remain a core national-security tool.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA-0.2%
- AMD-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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