Possible scenario
Husted Recovers Ground
35% Chance
The GOP's large Ohio reservation helps Jon Husted blunt Sherrod Brown's early polling lead by nationalizing the race and tying Brown to Democratic leadership. Outside Republican groups keep Ohio as a must-hold seat, and the spending advantage reduces the chance of a clean Democratic pickup.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.