Possible scenario
Brown Flips Ohio
30% Chance
Sherrod Brown's personal brand, labor support and strength with older working-class voters overcome the Republican spending advantage. The GOP ad surge keeps the race close but does not fully erase Brown's lead.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.6%
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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