Possible scenario
Review Continues Narrowly
40% Chance
ICE and DHS continue comparing state voter files against immigration and passport data, but the effort remains largely administrative and produces a relatively small number of referrals. States resist broad removals without individualized proof, limiting near-term disruption before the 2026 midterms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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