Possible scenario
Courts Restrict Program
30% Chance
Civil-rights groups, states and voters challenge the ICE review under privacy, election-law and due-process theories. Courts allow some citizenship verification but restrict bulk access, rushed removals or DOJ-ICE sharing without clearer statutory authority.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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