Possible scenario
US Retaliates
25% Chance
Washington treats the family exit bans as evidence that Beijing is militarizing AI talent and technology flows. The US response centers on tighter export-license reviews, expanded entity listings, and warnings to American firms with China-based AI research teams.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.1%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
- Business Services -0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA-2.9%
- AMD-1.8%
- -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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