Possible scenario
Talent Decoupling Accelerates
20% Chance
The policy triggers a reassessment of China-based R&D and executive postings. Firms do not immediately exit China, but they shift sensitive AI model, GPU, and chip-design work toward Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the US.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Business Services -0.5%
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
- QCOM-1.1%
- SNPS-1.0%
- CDNS-1.0%
- -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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