Possible scenario
Controls Become Routine
45% Chance
China maintains the new family travel restrictions as a targeted national-security tool for senior AI and chip personnel. Enforcement stays concentrated on executives and key engineers at strategic firms, limiting broader market spillovers but reinforcing decoupling expectations.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Business Services -0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.4%
- AMD-1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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