Possible scenario
Incremental State Support
35% Chance
Beijing leans on Central Huijin, state banks and insurers to provide visible but measured equity support. This is the most likely path because authorities have already signaled discomfort with the pace of selling, but may avoid a large fiscal package unless losses accelerate.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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